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3 Reasons Why Apple is a Buy -- and 2 Reason Why Not
By, Simon Maierhofer
Tuesday July 08, 2014
After 18 months in the bear market abyss, Apple is back in vogue again. A rally near the prior pre-split all-time high at 705 has ignited many bullish AAPL calls. Is now a good time to buy Apple (AAPL)?

Apple is within striking distance of its 2012 all-time high (100.72, split adjusted) and iWatch rumors are stoking investors’ imagination.

Is Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) a buy?

Here are 3 reasons why Apple should move higher and one reason why not.

Time to Buy: Apple is Cheap

Compared to the S&P 500, AAPL is cheap. AAPL is still trading 4% below its September 2012 all-time high.

The S&P 500 (SNP: ^GSPC) is 35% higher today than it was in September 2012 (see S&P 500 / AAPL chart below).

Apple’s P/E (based on forward earnings) is only 13, compared to 15 for the S&P 500.

Time to Buy: Apple’s Got its Mojo Back

After an 18-month, 45% bear market, Apple is catching more positive spotlight (again). Investors and the media are excited about the anticipated release of the iWatch and iPhone 6.

Time to Wait: Overhead Resistance Could Stifle Rally

The all-time high around $100 is an obvious hurdle. Trying to run through a hurdle can be painful. It may make sense to wait until the hurdle is overcome and then use it as a stop-loss level.

Time to Sell: Apple is Hot, too Hot for its own Good

The Apple buy signal is not a hidden secret. Here are just a few headlines from Monday:

  • CNBC: “This chart says Apple’s setting up for a huge move higher”
  • Nasdaq: “Why investors should own Apple now”
  • “Why Apple Stock remains a ‘buy’ at the Street”

The last time the media took a bold stand was in May, when it persistently proclaimed a market crash or correction (view a fascinating tale of recent ‘media bloopers’ here).

Time to (almost) Buy: Seasonality

The Profit Radar Report produces hand-crafted seasonality charts for many major indexes. An Apple seasonality chart was made available in 2012, since AAPL accounted for over 20% of the Nasdaq 100 (Nasdaq: QQQ) and over 5% of the S&P 500 (NYSEArca: SPY).

The seasonality chart projected a seasonal high on September 16. AAPL’s all-time high at 705 (pre-split) occurred on September 22.

The seasonality chart also projected a seasonal low in mid-April.

A complimentary look at the full Apple seasonality chart and what’s next for Apple is available here:

AAPL Seasonality Chart

Simon Maierhofer is the publisher of the Profit Radar ReportThe Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.

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