Apple Bullies the Nasdaq and S&P 500 But May Soon Disappoint Investors

Apple Bullies the Nasdaq and S&P 500 But May Soon Disappoint Investors

By, Simon Maierhofer

Wednesday August 22, 2012

The S&P 500, Nasdaq-100 and Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF are rallying to new multi-year recovery highs spurred by Apple's record setting performance. As Apple goes, so goes the market, so what's next for Apple?

Monday, August 20, 2012 is the day when Apple became the most valuable publicly traded company ever. That day the stock closed at $665.15 a share, giving it a market capitalization of $623.52 billion.

The previous record was set by Microsoft in 1999 when it was valued at $616.34 billion.

Apple is most certainly the biggest fish in the pond. How big? Apple accounts for 4.73% of the S&P 500 Index tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). The closest second is Exxon Mobil with a weighting of 3.22%.

All by itself, Apple’s share price matters almost as much as that of IBM, Microsoft and General Electric combined. While Apple dominates the S&P 500, it outright bullies the Nasdaq-100.

At $665 a share Apple controls 19.65% of the Nasdaq-100 and the ETF that tracks this index, the PowerShares QQQ (QQQ). Even more lopsided is AAPL’s share in the Technology Sector SPDR ETF (XLK), where it accounts for 20%.

Apple is so big that when Apple sneezes the U.S. stock market gets a cold. So how is Apple’s health?

Fundamental Analysis - New iPhone, New iPad … New Highs?

Consumers and investors are highly anticipating the new iPhone 5, the new iPad mini and Apple TV. With the holiday season coming up there are plenty of reasons to expect new all-time highs and record valuations for AAPL.

Apple trades at only 13 times earnings and many analysts consider Apple stock cheap.

Technical Analysis – Strong Resistance in Sight

The chart below shows AAPL on a log scale since 2000. I have shown the chart before, most recently in the July 22 Profit Radar Report, which stated that: “The upper red resistance channel will be around 660 later this week. A final push to kiss this trend line good bye would provide a beautiful technical picture and a solid sell signal.”

On Tuesday, August 21, the upper trend line resistance is at 679. Shares weren’t quite able to touch the line, which allows for new highs in the coming days.

If Apple shares follow the path of seasonal patterns in election years, we should see a top in Apple in late August followed by another seasonal high in November/December.