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It’s been a rough 3 weeks for stocks. The S&P 500 has now more than given up all of its post Election Day gains and lost more than 8.6% since the February all-time high.

The chart below shows that this is now the 3rd worst post Election Day performance (since 1972).

Although the White House claims that the stock market plunge is not as meaningful as business activity, it is the only fact to affect account balances and stoke recession fears.

Some credit the President for the Trump bump others blame him for the Trump slump. I don’t do either, but simply look at the facts.

The facts are simple and more reliable. Subscribers to the Profit Radar Report are intimately familiar with the chart below. It shows a potent resistance cluster around 6,150.

Resistance is made up of nearly 100-year old trend channel and Fibonacci projection levels going back decades. This has been there all along and it’s no surprise that stocks pulled back.

From a technical perspective that resistance cluster is massive, but it was not the only reason to be cautious.

The 2025 S&P 500 Forecast also mentioned the following developments: “Unlike 2023 and 2024, there are no bullish high confidence studies (studies with an outstanding track record of projecting future returns). More studies project flat or weak returns and/or some risk. Therefore, returns for 2025 are expected to be significantly weaker than previous years.”

More recently, a price-pattern related study (published in the February 23, Profit Radar Report) warned: “The most comparable periods were 2014, 2019, 2021. 1 month after, the S&P 500 was down every time.”

Almost a month later, the S&P is down again.

Talking about price patterns, I wanted to find out if there have been other times where the S&P 500 broke down after having been stuck in a trading range for months, like it just did.

The chart below highlights the trading range we’ve been in: 

- Primary trading range: Solid orange box

- Extended trading range: Dashed orange box

- Breakdown at the red arrow

The black box captures the time period of interest, which is 09/19/2024 - 03/10/2025. 

My question: Have there been other times the S&P 500 has carved out a pattern very similar to the pattern in the black box?

The answer: Yes. There were 6 time periods with a price pattern correlation of 88% or more.

The most amazing facet of this study is the S&P 500 forward performance after the most similar patterns. The performance was 100% consistent 2, 3, 6, and 9 month after. 

It’s rare to see that kind of consistency and it’s worth paying attention.

Tonight’s special Profit Radar Report update shows the exact historical forward performance after the most similar prior patterns (via graph and performance table) and what to do with this insight into stock market behavior.

Sign up for the Profit Radar Report. to access the above-mentioned analysis and the 2025 S&P 500 Forecast. Become the best informed investor you know.

The Profit Radar Report comes with a 30-day money back guarantee, but fair warning: 90% of users stay on beyond 30 days.

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