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S&P 500 Update
By, Simon Maierhofer
Friday March 27, 2020
The stock market has been operating in an environment of extremes. The first half of March delivered selling pressure never seen before, and the last week of March buying pressure like never seen before. What does this mean?


Before we get to the short-term S&P 500 update, here is a big picture look at the Dow Jones, going all the way back to 1896.


As of Friday, March 20, the Dow Jones lost an average of 9.56% every week for the past 4 weeks. The biggest 4-week loss ever. The only 2 times that come close to this losing record are 1914 (WWII) and 1929.



Shorter-term, the Dow Jones retraced 35% of the points lost since its February 12 high.



The first real bounce during the 1929 crash phase (red box) retraced 36%, but relapsed once more before delivering a 5-month, 50% bounce.



S&P 500 Update


The Sunday March 22 Profit Radar Report featured the chart below and stated that: “It is quite possible that the S&P 500 will jolt higher from the 2,190 - 2,130 range, and aggressive traders may act accordingly.


Barron's rates iSPYETF as "trader with a good track record" and Investor's Business Daily says: "When Simon says, the market listens." Find out why Barron's and IBD endorse Simon Maierhofer's Profit Radar Report.



On Monday, March 23, the S&P dipped as low as 2,191.86 and soared more than 400 points.


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There was a lot of oomph behind the 400+ point rally as 85.79% of NYSE-traded stocks closed higher for the past 3 days. This is a new record, as the chart below shows, and has been a solid buy signal.



Does this mean the low is in?


The March 24 Profit Radar Report featured the following chart and two Elliott Wave Theory interpretations: 



“Black: A 3-wave decline (potentially even 5-wave decline) completed at yesterday’s low. A large rally, possibly even to new highs, is under way.


Yellow: A 3-wave decline completed at yesterday’s low. A wave 4 rally is underway. Waves 4 tend to be very choppy and ultimately retrace around 38.2% of the prior wave 3 (2,542, see Fibonacci ruler), but could also go as far as the 50% level (2,655).”


Short-term, another new low (yellow projection) is still possible, but has become less likely.


Continued updates, projections, buy/sell recommendations are available via the Profit Radar Report.


Simon Maierhofer is the founder of iSPYETF and the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. Barron's rated iSPYETF as a "trader with a good track record" (click here for Barron's evaluation of the Profit Radar Report). The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013, 17.59% in 2014, 24.52% in 2015, 52.26% in 2016, and 23.39% in 2017.

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