Subscribers to iSPYETF’s free e-mail newsletter receive a market outlook, usually once a week. The market outlook below was sent out on March 19, 2026. If you’d like to sign up for the free e-newsletter, you may do so here (we will never share your e-mail with anyone, just as we don't accept advertising).

The major stock indexes have been like the proverbial swimming duck; calm on the surface, but paddling like crazy underneath. Why?

For the first 47 trading days of the year, the S&P 500 has stayed within a narrow 3% intra-day trading range, the most range-bound start to a year ever. The streak of calmness broke last Friday, when the S&P closed 4.96% below its all-time high (ATH).

Despite only a mild loss, the S&P was massively over-sold as it closed more than 3 standard deviations below its 50-day SMA while being less than 5% below its ATH. 

Although the S&P 500 is still within its 5 1/2 month range, ‘the duck is paddling below the surface.’ The 10-day SMA of the NY Composite a/d ratio dipped to 0.72 last Friday, the lowest level since December 2024. Beneath the surface, more stocks are being sold than bought. 

In addition, the amount of NYSE-traded stocks above their 50-day SMA has dropped below 30% and the stocks trading above their 200-day SMA below 50% ... all while the S&P 500 is close to its ATH. A similar constellation existed only 7 other times. 

Based on the weight of evidence, Sunday’s (March 13, 2026) PRR stated: “Short-term, RSI-2 for the S&P 500 and DJIA is over-sold and both indexes are below their lower Bollinger Band. Odds of a bounce are high. There is also an open S&P 500 chart gap at 6,745.59. We know this gap will be closed. Stocks will likely bounce, but it is still possible for any bounce to roll over to the down side again.”

The bounce has come and gone, it closed the open chart gap and thereafter gave way to lower lows.

The Profit Radar Report closed long stock positions in February with the intent of buying at lower prices. We are now getting closer to our first support/buy level.

Detailed buy orders along with the other time the S&P closed 3 standard deviations below the 50-day SMA while within 5% of an ATH and the other 7 precedents with a similar breadth constellation are detailed in Sunday’s Profit Radar Report.

Silver

The January 25, Profit Radar Report warned: “If silver wants to blow off, it can reach 119.50 before this rally leg rolls over into a deeper decline.”

Silver topped at 121.785 and tumbled. The February 1, Profit Radar Report stated: “Most commonly after such an emotionally charged pop and drop, price will enter a period of volatile, range bound trading.”

Silver continues to be in that trading range. A drop into the green support would be a low-risk buying opportunity.

Gold

Short-term, gold reached support and is over-sold. A bounce may develop but the February 15, PRR outlined the following:
 

“An eventual drop below the February 2 low would make buying gold more interesting.” Gold is getting close to breaking below the February 2 low at 4,423.20.

Crude Oil

The Sunday, March 8 Profit Radar Report - at the time crude oil futures traded near 120 - warned: “Crude oil futures soared and price is now up almost 60% for the past week. This appears to be an emotional overreaction (at least short-term) similar to silver’s move in late January.” Like silver, oil dropped over 30% in the next two days.

The oil outlook published in the March 10, Profit Radar Report remains valid: 

“The challenge for crude oil now is the same as it was (and is) for silver: How do you peg fair value of an asset that first pops 87.86% and the drops 35.78% in a span of just 9 trading days?

The general bias of crude oil is likely up with key support at 68 - 69 (blue bubble) and additional support around the prior highs (green lines). Similar to silver, periods of such emotional outburst moves are generally followed by a period of churning and calibration (which can span a fairly wide range).”

US Dollar Index

The January 26, Profit Radar Report reasoned that a US dollar low is in and commented:

“The US dollar index closed at a new low yesterday along with a bullish RSI-35 divergence and closed back above the trend channel today. This could mark a major low. As long as trend line support holds, we suppose the US dollar will now trend higher. New subscribers may initiate a position in UUP and we will consider adding to our existing position.”

The US dollar index may have completed a 5-wave rally off the January 27 low. If that’s the case, we should soon see a multi-week pullback followed by a rally that will lift the dollar easily above 100 and towards 110.

Continued updates and factual out-of-the box analysis are available via the Profit Radar Report. 

The Profit Radar Report comes with a 30-day money back guarantee, but fair warning: 90% of users stay on beyond 30 days.

Barron's rates iSPYETF a "trader with a good track record," and Investor's Business Daily writes "Simon says and the market is playing along."

Subscribers to iSPYETF’s free e-mail newsletter receive a market outlook, usually once a week. The market outlook below was sent out on January 28. If you’d like to sign up for the free e-newsletter, you may do so here (we will never share your e-mail with anyone, just as we don't accept advertising).

Continued updates and factual out-of-the box analysis are available via the Profit Radar Report. 

The Profit Radar Report comes with a 30-day money back guarantee, but fair warning: 90% of users stay on beyond 30 days.

Barron's rates iSPYETF a "trader with a good track record," and Investor's Business Daily writes "Simon says and the market is playing along."