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New Bitcoin ETF, Eating Crow, S&P 500 Update
By, Simon Maierhofer
Thursday October 21, 2021
ProShares just launched the first Bitcoin ETF (BITO), which became the fasted ETF ever to reach $1 billion in assets. Is this the Coinbase debacle all over again? An a different note, guess who’s having to eat crow?

 

Subscribers to iSPYETF’s free e-mail newsletter receive a market outlook, usually once a week. The market outlook below was sent out on October 21, 2021. If you’d like to sign up for the free e-newsletter, you may do so here (we will never share your e-mail with anyone, just as we don't accept advertising).

 

Stock market bears seem to enjoy sitting in their echo chamber shielding themselves from objective analysis. Below are just a couple of works produced by the bears' echo chamber:

 

8/21/21 - Elliott Wave International: "The top is in."

9/20/21 - Glenn Neely, NEoWave: "The bull market is over!"

9/20/21 - Fox Business: "Stocks could drop 20% or more."

9/28/21 - Kitco: "Bear market is imminent."

9/30/21 - Barron's: "3 Reasons the stock market will keep falling."

 

Bears are back to eating crow (for international readers, eating crow is an idiom for admitting to being wrong after taking a strong stand).

 

Although my Risk/Reward Heat Map projected weakness for September/October, the weight of evidence suggested only a limited pullback.

 

In fact, I quoted some of the above bear claims and stated in the September 23 Free Market Outlook that:

 

"While the risk was 'on schedule,' I didn't - I couldn't - call the bull market over or even presume further losses. Here are my 3 reasons for giving bulls the benefit of the doubt."

 

You may review the 3 reasons and the Risk/Reward Heat Map here.

 

Another reason not to count out bulls was shared in the October 7, Free Market Outlook, which pointed out that market breadth did not confirm a breakdown (chart below).

 

 

It may sound like I'm plugging my own research (and I kinda am), but more importantly I'm plugging the truth. There's never been a time with as much information and as little truth.

 

iSPYETF is a place where you will always find honest analysis.

 

The S&P 500 is butting against its prior ATH while over-bought (based on RSI-2). This is a place where I'd allow for some weakness (chance for bears) but the path of least resistance is up as long as the S&P doesn't drop below 4,429.

 

 

ProShares launched the first Bitcoin ETF (BITO) on Monday, and it hit the $1 billion asset mark faster than any other ETF ever.

 

Below is the bullish Elliott Wave count published in the September 23 Profit Radar Report (also shared in the October 7, Free Market Outlook).

 

 

New trading vehicles for hot markets often put a damper on price (BITO is down 5.5% today). Does anyone remember what happened to bitcoin when Coinbase (a crypto currency exchange) launched? Hint, look at the top left of the chart below. I wrote about this in more detail here.

 

Continued updates, out-of-the box analysis and forward performance based on historic precedents are available via the Profit Radar Report.

 

The Profit Radar Report comes with a 30-day money back guarantee, but fair warning: 90% of users stay on beyond 30 days.

 

Barron's rates iSPYETF a "trader with a good track record," and Investor's Business Daily writes "Simon says and the market is playing along."

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