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ETF SPY: Will XLK Ride Apple’s Coattail?
By, Simon Maierhofer
Wednesday July 24, 2013
Apple has broken above resistance courtesy of a post-earnings gap up open. This is a bullish development, but caution is warranted as there’ve been at least 7 dead cat bounces in recent months.

The after hours reaction to Apple’s earnings announcement was positive. Shares were up nearly 5% as AAPL beat earnings and sold more iPhones than expected. The biggest fly in the ointment was that margins are shrinking, a problem all companies face when they ‘grow up.’

Apple accounts for 11.67% of the Nasdaq-100 (Nasdaq: QQQ) and 13.15% of the Technology Select Sector SPDR (NYSEArca: XLK).
Although Apple’s effect on the technology sector is not as suffocating as it was at $700 a share, AAPL is still the single biggest component of QQQ and XLK.
Interestingly, XLK has thus far been unable to beat its May high, but QQQ did. This lag is not due to Apple, as Apple rallied 11.8% from June 24 – July 17, XLK only 7.51%.
XLK Technical Picture
The stock market in general is kind of stuck between a rock and a hard place. A correction is due, but any dip is likely to be bought again. This means the up side is limited, but so is the down side.
The XLK chart below shows basic support and resistance (solid red and green line). 
A close below the July 19 low at 31.37 would be a failed percentR low-risk entry, essentially a sell signal.
As long as prices stay above 31.37, the open chart gap (purple bar) should be filled. Even a move to the red trend line is possible.
AAPL Technical Analysis
If you want a shot of nostalgia, you’ll enjoy this article from August 22, 2012:
This article was written at a time when analysts were ‘bidding’ for the highest Apple price targets. Above 1,000 was pretty much the minimum bet.
Apple then dropped from 705 to 385 and has been bouncing aimlessly ever since.
Today AAPL was able to clear short-term resistance at 437. Next trend line resistance is at 448.
There have been many false fits and starts for Apple since the April low at 385 and there’s no telling if this bounce will stick. Similar breakaway gaps (gray circles) were retraced shortly thereafter, so it’s prudent to wait for more confirmation.
Simon Maierhofer is the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. 
You can follow him on Twitter @ iSPYETF.

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